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Post by lostninja on May 3, 2016 18:25:26 GMT -5
It's Assurran. That said, if they die tonight, we probably have a mafia in our midst. I don't think that's the case, but it's a reality we have to be aware of seeing as how none of us are seer proven.
Assurran said he healed SeGaTai last night because he was second on the Gizzy wagon before the seer call.
That makes sense to me. Do we have any other leads? I'm honestly clueless at this point.
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Post by martoss on May 3, 2016 18:43:44 GMT -5
Honestly, with Assuran out of the list of suspects, the only name that jumps out at me is Grunt's Ghosts. Mafia never seem to vote towards him or argue against him, and his vote record could be a little shady if you look at it long enough. He seems helpful in the threads but has he actually helped yet?
I'd be willing to switch my poison over to him if everyone's cool with it.
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Post by lostninja on May 3, 2016 18:49:36 GMT -5
He just vouched for me and CJ against JFPs fake seer call though.
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Post by martoss on May 3, 2016 19:01:14 GMT -5
Did he? If he saw JFPs seer post I think he would have worded his own post differently. Which then, if he was talking about you knowing Austin, then it must have been in response to your defense against SeGaTai's suspicions.
And what better way to divert suspicion than to make yourself look good to established good guys? Again, I'm just not convinced he's actually contributed something that we can work with yet, despite doing a good job of appearing like he has.
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Post by lostninja on May 3, 2016 19:18:05 GMT -5
Honestly if we are targeting one of the monsters I'd prefer Chamberlain as he's been flying under the radar and his (I think multiple) H3 votes seem weird. But I'm not sold on that either.
ee really just need two main targets. One to push the vote for tomorrow, and one to poison. and if we manage to hit with either, we win (assuming JFP does red).
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Post by martoss on May 3, 2016 19:40:27 GMT -5
I agree that chamberlain is suspicious too, and that would go a long way to explaining why Gizzy felt the need to leave his bandwagon even at the cost of giving the final vote to DemonIzual on day 2. But then DemonIzual himself voted for chamberlain instead of jumping to a third option as well.
Maybe they just ran out of good options. For now I'm going to go with my gut and aim my poison at GG but I'd be happy to poison/vote chamberlain tomorrow.
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Post by H3Knuckles on May 3, 2016 20:07:33 GMT -5
Antlion and Octomom are the only other wild monsters I can think to be millers. Dark Elf would make more sense as an independent, he didn't care about anything but keeping the earth crystal for himself.
The wild monsters don't have any reason to be masoned, they're not intelligent as far as I know and they're not connected to the feymarch like the summons are in the story. But for game-design reasons Doe might've done it that way, just like giving me corpse seer really makes no sense but was a convenience.
Rubicante is the only mafia that should have healing, unless we're considering more than 5 initial members (so that Dr. Lugae is an option).
Thanks a bunch LostNinja, hope the healer turns out to be legit (Porom is still unaccounted for and a pure-class white mage).
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Post by martoss on May 3, 2016 20:20:55 GMT -5
Yeah we should be careful to assume anything about mafia distribution. Even if it fits the story, it might not fit the game. I'm still suspecting there'll be a sixth mafia member, though I would be happy to be proven wrong.
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Post by H3Knuckles on May 3, 2016 20:32:35 GMT -5
According to my lists the only people who ever voted for me were Virgil on day one (which he redacted to vote for SLyM in retaliation to SLyM's vote for him), and jdarksun voted for me on day one and day two. invictus's second vote day two was for me, but redacted the moment people point out this was my first game. His day two voting was kind of bizzare, he voted Martoss and switched off as soon as Martoss replied, then me until people pointed out I was new, then chamberlain, until switching to brody much later on. I gather that he didn't really start compiling his own voting records until later, and it was probably partly influenced by his grabbing at straws day 2.
I feel pretty good about him being Elder of Mysidia now though, even though I think being a second corpse seer undersells the character. I think I'm tending to try too hard to map things to the game though. There's been a lot of redundancies in powers and with 3+ monster millers around it's not the craziest idea.
Gonna corpse seer Auralynx since nobody had a better suggestion and Virgil suggested checking random dead villagers on the off chance of some weird mafia disguise ability.
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Post by lostninja on May 3, 2016 20:34:46 GMT -5
Six mafia and a serial killer in a 30 person game would just be rigged. Honestly, as is we just got lucky most of the player base had a grudge vote to spend on the SK or we would have been toast.
I really think there are just 5, and by process of elimination one of them is probably chamberlain, GG, or Kime (assuming Assuran comes through as a healer tonight).
Outside of us three:
Premium and SeGaTai both appear to have been the first or second on mafia bandwagons which eliminate them Assuran is a healer Virgil is a king (I don't think there's any chance he mafia is there?) And Invictus through pm and his actions in thread is coming off more and more village like (even if it is weird that there are two corpse seers
Am I missing anything?
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Post by martoss on May 3, 2016 20:51:54 GMT -5
I think that all checks out. That being said, in my very very limited experience, I don't think it's impossible that Premium or SeGaTai could have voted early on a mafia member, assuming it was a safe vote for whatever reason, only to be trapped when the bandwagons got rolling. At least, that's what happened to me before in another game.
But I'm just trying to cover our bases in case everything goes sour later. Until we have reason to believe otherwise, chamberlain GG and Kime seem like good targets first.
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Post by H3Knuckles on May 3, 2016 20:51:57 GMT -5
Virgil - claimed king of eblan, first to present royal decree iirc, claimed miller monster, phyphor claimed miller monster, phyphor died as queen of eblan, phyphor corpse seered as villager. In game they're still able to speak their mind but compelled to fight the player party. I feel pretty strongly based on phyphor's fate that Virgil's legit, unless he's totally lieing about being the King (but in pm's with me he's said my infodumping has been interesting because he never played the game, so how would he know to claim that character?).
Unless we have a terrible vigilante with stone (possible though) I feel like premium's condition suggests villager. There was basically nothing but voting speculation to go on for jaysonfour and his replacement, whereas it sorta makes sense a vig might've still suspected chamberlain for nearly surviving a bandwagon and having publically acknowledged he'd seer red.
SeGaTai is another one where there's really only voting to go by; he missed day two, voted LostNinja day three when a lot of people were still skeptical about your res, was an early voter for Gizzy, and the second to last voter for jdark.
I think we are in agreement.
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Post by martoss on May 3, 2016 20:56:38 GMT -5
One note about chamberlain though, is what MrT said long time ago:
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Post by lostninja on May 3, 2016 21:04:25 GMT -5
Also forgot chamberlain had been stoned, so assuming the stoner is mafia (which only makes since as I can't think of a single mafia member that has been stoned). He checks out. So I guess poisoning GG sounds good, and maybe target either SeGaTai or premium with the vote? Or Kime?
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Post by lostninja on May 3, 2016 21:05:54 GMT -5
SeGaTai might have just bit it to Inactivus. Wonder how that will play out?
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Post by martoss on May 3, 2016 21:12:15 GMT -5
Well I mean, JFP got stoned too.
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Post by lostninja on May 3, 2016 21:14:04 GMT -5
Forgot about that. Shit.
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Post by H3Knuckles on May 3, 2016 22:31:10 GMT -5
Welp, another wasted corpse seer, Auralynx was exactly what his death narrated.
Damnit, we lost LostNinja. Having the confirmed villager was too useful. And our last healer? At least we're now rid of the mind controller (unless Zemus is a character, but everyone seems to doubt it), and another mafia down, and confirmation that mafia get two powers (each has a form of revenge-kill, and another power, mind control in Golbez' case).
So, another summoned monster? Wow, the roles in this game are kind of bizarre. Wonder which heroes got cut to have so many supporting characters.
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